Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings – Third Base

 

Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings

Updated 2/21/11

 

 

Third Base

 

Kyle Stafford – @KStafford32

Player Rankings by Position:

Catchers

First Base

Second Base

ShortStop

Third Base

Outfield… coming soon

Starting Pitchers… coming soon

Relief Pitchers… coming soon

Closers… coming soon

 

The rankings are based upon the following:

 

Random Variance Score- shows the results random variance had on a player’s 2011 season and the probability that a player will exceed or regress in 2012. Scoring is a -5 to +5 scale that measures several sabermetric categories that reflect if a player is prone to regression.

 

The Mayberry Method- a 0-5 scale of a fantasy players Power, Speed, Batting Average, and Playing Time.

 

Health & Age- Player is given a score A to F based on the combination of health history and age/regression.

 

Runs Above Replacement (RAR)- Estimated number of runs a player will generate above his replacement

 

On Base Plus Slugging Average (OPS)- Combines On Base percentage plus slugging percentage to show a players overall performance. Elite players will bat .900 or higher. Stars will bat .800 or higher. The average player will bat above .650. A bad score is anything under .650

 

 

1. Miguel Cabrera, Det

Age: 29   2011 Stats: .344-30-105

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-2

5155

A

39.1

1.034

 

Another MVP Caliber year for Cabrera. The 2011 AL Batting Champ hit .356 in the second half leading a well rounded Detroit team to the AL Championship series. I don’t see the move to third hurting him much. I could see a slight drop in power numbers with all of the weight he has dropped to play third. He is in the middle of his prime, and with the addition of Prince Fielder I see a better pitches coming his way. His contact% has been on 4 year incline. You can count on .300-35.100.

 

 

2. Evan Longoria, TB

Age: 26   2011 Stats: .244-31-99

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+5

5245

B

16.8

.847

 

Longoria is young and his elite potential is still on the rise. I would not be too concerned about injuries. Batting Average took a hit in 2011. I would expect a rebound, and if he can get 550+ AB, expect 35-40 HR Power. Showed great PX and xBA.

 

3. Hanley Ramirez, Mia

Age: 28   2011 Stats: .243-10-45

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+2

3235

B-

.05

.709

 

2011 was a year to forget for Hanley. Injuires and clear lack of motivation made him almost worthless to fantasy owners. I have never bought into the hype surrounding Ramirez. He has had only one great season (2009: .342-24-106, 27 SB). I think he can be a nice player, but when the “experts” call him elite I just laugh. His entitlement toward himself  is enough to scare me away from him. Ramirez is a classic case of High Potential. If he could show his talents you might see a season that look like .350-40-120 with 35+ SB. He reminds me of a former High Potential, unmotivated player I remember from St.Louis named J.D. Drew.

 

4. Adrian Beltre, Tex

Age: 33   2011 Stats: .296-32-105

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

0

4145

C+

14.9

.891

 

Beltre showed us 2010 in Boston was no fluke. He hits in a powerful Texas lineup that gives him plenty of chances to drive runs in. My main concern when I evaluate Beltre is his injury history. He missed August last year with a bum hamstring and had a nice injury history before that with Seattle.

5. Ryan Zimmerman, Was

Age: 27   2011 Stats: .289-12-49

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-2

3225

C+

5.1

.799

I feel Zimmerman is very underrated. He has 35+ HR power, and can hit .300+. At 27 he is entering his prime with a lineup in Washington that is only getting better around him. Injuries have been a hurdle for him lately, but he is healthy heading into 2012 and should continue to put up premium stats.

 

6. David Wright, NYM 

Age: 29   2011 Stats: .254-14-61

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+1

4125

D+

2.7

.769

Ever since taking a 93 mph fastball to the head in August of 2009, Wright has showed a steady decline. Not the Elite player that many thought he would be, but is still a talented 3rd baseman. 30 HR power, BA in the .280 range, and steals 15 bases is a nice piece to have on your team. 

 

7.  Kevin Youkilis, Bos

Age: 33   2011 Stats: .258-17-80

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

0

4235

F

12.1

.818

 

Being on the wrong side of 30 has not fared well for Youkilis. Since 2009 he has been on a downward trend that took a huge dive last year when injuries came into the picture. He still put up .818 OPS, but with the high risk of injury don’t expect 25+ HR power to come back.

 

8 Pablo Sandoval, SF

Age: 25   2011 Stats: .315-23-70

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-1

4145

B+

18.4

.914

 

Sandoval came back huge in 2011. At 25 years old, you can only hope the sky is the limit for this rising star. The metrics show 30+ HR potential and with a .315 average could bolt him into the elite discussion. Lets see how 2012 turns out before we crown him, but it should be fun to watch him continue to develop. 

9. Alex Rodriguez, NYY

Age: 36   2011 Stats: .276-16-62

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

0

4125

F

8.1

.818

 

 

You can no longer consider A-Rod elite. You can’t count on much with the declining trends, injury history, age, and overall regression. He still has the potential at his age to hit 25-30 HRs and drive in 100, but staying on the field is the issue.

10. Aramis Ramirez, Mil

Age: 34  2011 Stats: .306-26-93

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-1

4235

C+

15.9

.865

 

Even with injuries, Ramirez has been able to slug 25+ HR for the better part of 4 of the past 5 seasons. He hit .306 and hit 96 RBIs on a horrible Cubs team last season. With the Brewers, I could see him picking up some of the slack Prince left behind.   

 

If you would like to explore more in-depth about Advanced Metrics, here are some amazing resources/people that have made a priceless impact on the way I evaluate players and it has shown in the success I have each year. I do not get any kick backs from this list, just like to promote great materials/information when I see it.

 

http://www.baseballhq.com  – Ron Shandler is amazing, buy Baseball Forecaster… it’s my “Fantasy Bible”

 

http://baseballguys.com/ – Ray Flowers gives simple, but great wisdom on the world of Fantasy Sports. Follow him on twitter @Baseballguys

 

http://www.billjamesonline.com/ – Bill James is the Godfather of SABR, If you are new to the game here is where you start to learn advanced metrics

 

 

Questions? Comments? Follow me on Twitter @KStafford32

 

 

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Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings – Shortstop

 

Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings

Updated 2/14/11

 

 

Shortstop

 

Kyle Stafford – @KStafford32

Player Rankings by Position:

Catchers

First Base

Second Base

ShortStop

Third Base

Outfield… coming soon

Starting Pitchers… coming soon

Relief Pitchers… coming soon

Closers… coming soon

 

The rankings are based upon the following:

 

Random Variance Score- shows the results random variance had on a player’s 2011 season and the probability that a player will exceed or regress in 2012. Scoring is a -5 to +5 scale that measures several sabermetric categories that reflect if a player is prone to regression.

 

The Mayberry Method- a 0-5 scale of a fantasy players Power, Speed, Batting Average, and Playing Time.

 

Health & Age- Player is given a score A to F based on the combination of health history and age/regression.

 

Runs Above Replacement (RAR)- Estimated number of runs a player will generate above his replacement

 

On Base Plus Slugging Average (OPS)- Combines On Base percentage plus slugging percentage to show a players overall performance. Elite players will bat .900 or higher. Stars will bat .800 or higher. The average player will bat above .650. A bad score is anything under .650

 

 

1. Troy Tulowitzki, Col

Age: 27   2011 Stats: .302-30-105

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+1

4255

A

39.9

915

 

Tulo is everything you want in an elite fantasy player. Tulo has yet to reach his ceiling. 40 HR and 20 SB potential all while playing Shortstop and hitting .300+ .The metrics and trends clearly show we have yet to see the best of this elite player.

 

 

2. Jose Reyes, Mia

Age: 28   2011 Stats: .337-7-44

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+1

3545

D-

23.2

.880

 

Through the first half of 2011, Reyes looked healthy and was on his way to a career year. He was on pace for 60+ SB, 90+RBI, 20 HR all while hitting .337. All those hopes for Reyes owners were crushed when his hamstring blew up before the allstar break. Even when he came back he was not the same player. Over his career, Reyes is the classic High Reward/High Risk player. Switching leagues and getting paid might have some negative effects on him getting a fast start. The new ballpark in Miami is suppose to be a pitchers park which could lead to a lot of XBH. He is only 28, and being in the middle of his prime you can expect big stats if healthy.

 

3. Starlin Castro, ChC

Age: 21   2011 Stats: .307-10-66

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+2

2435

A+

7.5

.773

 

At 21 years old, Elite Speed with a .300 average is a great foundation to have. The trends show that power will develop over the years but I could expect 15 HRs in 2012. If he gets the right manager that will give him the green light, 50+ steals are in his realm. Great CT% shows the average is legit. Castro is a great keeper to hold onto and build your team around for years.

 

4. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle

Age: 26   2011 Stats: .273-25-92

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-1

2325

B-

7.2

.799

 

A healthy 2011 showed great progress from a 2009 season. He saw more Fastballs in 2011 than ever before, which could show where some of his power came from. The trends do show 10-15 HR power. Besides the power every other basic stat fell inline with the metrics. Projected 2012 ceiling would be .270-15-90.

 

5. Eric Aybar, LAA

Age: 28   2011 Stats: .279-10-59

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+1

2335

B+

.08

.738

There is a lot of hype surrounding Aybar in the Fantasy world. I have seen projections as insane as .335-20-100 with 55 SB. I am not on that bandwagon. Don’t get me wrong, I think Aybar will have a nice season. With Pujols and Morales entering the lineup, Aybar should have beter pitch selection at the plate and more chances to rack up steals on the basepaths. Aybar has only hit over .279 once in his career. With his SB metrics dropping in 2011, 50 plus stolen bases are a stretch. I see Aybar gaining a lot in Runs and a spike up to 40 SBs. He produces across the board which makes him valuable at SS, but he is not “great” at anything.

 

6. Elvis Andrus, Tex 

Age: 23   2011 Stats: .279-5-60

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+1

1335

A+

-.07

.703

 

I am starting to wonder if this is as good as it gets for Andrus from a fantasy prospective.  If defensive stats where big in fantasy, he would be elite. He has zero power, hardly hits .279, and his baserunning metrics dropped in 2011. With his talent I would expect 50 steals, and that would be enough for me to draft him higher. BUT he has not shown that talent and I am starting to wonder if he is not over-hyped.

 

7. Jhonny Peralta, Det

Age: 29   2011 Stats: .299-21-86

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-1

2225

A

3.5

.827

 

Shows 20+ HR power. Can hit in the .270-.299 range. OPS was a nice .827. If Peralta could steal 15+ bases and be more consistant, he would easily be a top 5 Shortstop. The problem is one year he hits .249, then the next he is .299. One year he will hit 24 HRs, then he drops to 11. With Prince in the lineup, you can hope Peralta is in a better position for success.

 

8. Alexei Ramirez, CWS

Age: 30   2011 Stats: .269-15-70

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+1

2335

A

7.2

.724

 

In my book, Ramirez is a huge letdown. After his 2008 season, there was hope he would produce 30+ HR power, steal 25+ bases, and hit over .300. Those projections are long gone. At 30 years old, he has acted like a player on the wrong side of 30 the past 3 seasons. As he continues his decline he is just average across the board.

 

9. Jimmy Rollins, Phi

Age: 33   2011 Stats: .268-16-63

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+1

1235

C-

2.8

.735

 

 

The 30 steals in 2011 suprised me, but I don’t expect 30+ in the future. With a 33 year old Rollins, you can expect 15-20 HRs, 20 steals and a .260 average. Regression metrics are showing 20% decline every year past 33 for Rollins.

 

10. J.J. Hardy, Bal

Age: 29  2011 Stats: .269-30-80

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-2

3125

C+

5.6

.801

 

The only other player besides Tulo to show 30 HR power in 2011. I wouldn’t expect 30 HR this year, but if healthy he can easily get you 20-25. I like Hardy do to the power potential and he normally holds a BA around .270.  His CT% has held steady, but health issues might spark regression. He is a nice MI option, and a cheap source for power.

 

 

If you would like to explore more in-depth about Advanced Metrics, here are some amazing resources/people that have made a priceless impact on the way I evaluate players and it has shown in the success I have each year. I do not get any kick backs from this list, just like to promote great materials/information when I see it.

 

http://www.baseballhq.com  – Ron Shandler is amazing, buy Baseball Forecaster… it’s my “Fantasy Bible”

 

http://baseballguys.com/ – Ray Flowers gives simple, but great wisdom on the world of Fantasy Sports. Follow him on twitter @Baseballguys

 

http://www.billjamesonline.com/ – Bill James is the Godfather of SABR, If you are new to the game here is where you start to learn advanced metrics

 

 

Questions? Comments? Follow me on Twitter @KStafford32

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings – Second Base

 

Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings

Updated 2/2/11

 

 

Second Baseman

 

Kyle Stafford – @KStafford32

Player Rankings by Position:

Catchers

First Base

Second Base

ShortStop

Third Base

Outfield… coming soon

Starting Pitchers… coming soon

Relief Pitchers… coming soon

Closers… coming soon

 

The rankings are based upon the following:

 

Random Variance Score- shows the results random variance had on a player’s 2011 season and the probability that a player will exceed or regress in 2012. Scoring is a -5 to +5 scale that measures several sabermetric categories that reflect if a player is prone to regression.

 

The Mayberry Method- a 0-5 scale of a fantasy players Power, Speed, Batting Average, and Playing Time.

 

Health & Age- Player is given a score A to F based on the combination of health history and age/regression.

 

Runs Above Replacement (RAR)- Estimated number of runs a player will generate above his replacement

 

On Base Plus Slugging Average (OPS)- Combines On Base percentage plus slugging percentage to show a players overall performance. Elite players will bat .900 or higher. Stars will bat .800 or higher. The average player will bat above .650. A bad score is anything under .650

 

 

1. Robinson Cano, NYY

Age: 29   2011 Stats: .302-28-118

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

0

4255

A

24.2

875

 

Cano has so much upside it’s hard to ignore. He has power, average, and is in a monster lineup. He did take a minor baby step back in 2011. OPS, Contact rate, and FB% all took a drop. I would not be concerned, you have 3-4 strong prime years with a guy that plays a position with weak talent. I don’t think he can compete for a batting title, but he will hit .300-30-100.

 

2. Ian Kinsler, Tex

Age: 30   2011 Stats: .255-32-77

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+2

4235

D+

22.5

.826

 

When healthy, Kinsler is the elite second baseman. 2011 showed what a healthy year can produce. The great news is that he is due for an even bigger year in 2012, if he can stay healthy.  At 30 years old we have no idea how injuries will continue to effect Kinsler, but 30-30 potential and hope that .300 batting average can come back would make Kinsler a top 15 fantasy player.

 

3. Dustin Pedroia, Bos

Age: 28   2011 Stats: .307-21-91

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-1

3345

C+

29.7

.864

 

Pedroia put up very similar numbers to his 2008 MVP season. His first 20-20 season and a huge second half stat line .339-14-56. The trends show Pedroia could take a step back in 2012. Being in that very dangerous Boston lineup, I could see the opposite take effect. At 28, Pedroia is a safe pick.

 

4. Ben Zobrist, TB

Age: 31   2011 Stats: .269-20-91

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

0

4225

B

21.3

.823

 

Zobrist had another solid season. At 31, regression is always a concern. He has a healthy OPS, and runs the bases well. A solid middle infield option.

 

5. Brandon Phillips, Cin

Age: 31   2011 Stats: .300-18-82

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-1

3235

A

11.4

.804

Being on the wrong side of 30, regression has hit Phillips that past few seasons. He is no longer a 20-30 HR threat. The days of 30 SB are gone. What you are left is an aging hitter that will hit .285-15-70. Still not a bad stat line for a middle infielder. His regression rate is similar to Orlando Hudson when he hit 30, Phillips obviously has a better skillset.

 

6. Chase Utley, Phi 

Age: 33   2011 Stats: .259-11-44

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+2

3325

F

2.9

.750

 

When healthy, Utley has an elite skillset for the second base position. He plays the game hard, sometimes too hard. You have to have faith that he is going to be healthy if you select him on draft day. In the second half of 2011, you saw him gain power as he stayed healthy. He also ran the bases well as the season progressed. I see a BA rebound, and you can expect 20 HRs, and double digit SB.

 

7. Howie Kendrick, LAA

Age: 28   2011 Stats: .285-18-63

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-1

3245

A-

7.2

.790

 

Great combination of Speed/Power/BA. The trends show that we have not seen the peak of his power yet. Qualifying at 2B/OF, you can not get a better value pick than Kendrick.

 

 

8. Rickie Weeks, Mil

Age: 29   2011 Stats: .269-20-49

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

0

4325

F

12.0

.810

 

Last year I passed on drafting Weeks because I was afraid of his injury history. I was right, but again I was wrong because I drafted Tsuyoshi Nishioka instead…. I was trying to stay under my league cap…my bad. Like Utley, Weeks is another example of great talent that can’t stay on the field. 30+ HR, 25+ SB, and 100 RBI potential that we have been waiting for since 2007, but we only got a short look at it in 2010. He could be the only big bat for the Brewers this season with Ryan Braun a facing PED suspension. Classic High Risk-High Reward.

 

9. Dan Uggla, Atl

Age: 32   2011 Stats: .233-36-82

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+1

4215

A-

2.2

.758

 

Had a great second half, .290-24-54. Buy the Power, 30-35 HR potential. BA is on a huge decline, and regression trends are picking up. He is the Mark Reynolds of second basemen.

 

10. Brian Roberts, Bal

Age: 34  2011 Stats: .221-3-19

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+2

2213

F

–7.7

.606

 

Continuing the trend of talented Second Basemen that can’t stay healthy, Meet Brian Roberts. This former 18 HR, 50 SB, .314 hitter has fallen pretty hard. Unable to stay healthy, because he can’t take his PEDs *allegedly*, Roberts has only potential that keeps him in the discussion of top second basemen. Like Joe Mauer, you can’t ignore potential. Let hope Roberts skills were not all a result of PED abuse *allegedly*. Looking at the stats and factoring in regression at 34, IF Roberts can get 500 AB look forward to .265-10-60 with 20 SB.

 

 

If you would like to explore more in-depth about Advanced Metrics, here are some amazing resources/people that have made a priceless impact on the way I evaluate players and it has shown in the success I have each year. I do not get any kick backs from this list, just like to promote great materials/information when I see it.

 

http://www.baseballhq.com  – Ron Shandler is amazing, buy Baseball Forecaster… it’s my “Fantasy Bible”

 

http://baseballguys.com/ – Ray Flowers gives simple, but great wisdom on the world of Fantasy Sports. Follow him on twitter @Baseballguys

 

http://www.billjamesonline.com/ – Bill James is the Godfather of SABR, If you are new to the game here is where you start to learn advanced metrics

 

 

Questions? Comments? Follow me on Twitter @KStafford32