Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings – Third Base

 

Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings

Updated 2/21/11

 

 

Third Base

 

Kyle Stafford – @KStafford32

Player Rankings by Position:

Catchers

First Base

Second Base

ShortStop

Third Base

Outfield… coming soon

Starting Pitchers… coming soon

Relief Pitchers… coming soon

Closers… coming soon

 

The rankings are based upon the following:

 

Random Variance Score- shows the results random variance had on a player’s 2011 season and the probability that a player will exceed or regress in 2012. Scoring is a -5 to +5 scale that measures several sabermetric categories that reflect if a player is prone to regression.

 

The Mayberry Method- a 0-5 scale of a fantasy players Power, Speed, Batting Average, and Playing Time.

 

Health & Age- Player is given a score A to F based on the combination of health history and age/regression.

 

Runs Above Replacement (RAR)- Estimated number of runs a player will generate above his replacement

 

On Base Plus Slugging Average (OPS)- Combines On Base percentage plus slugging percentage to show a players overall performance. Elite players will bat .900 or higher. Stars will bat .800 or higher. The average player will bat above .650. A bad score is anything under .650

 

 

1. Miguel Cabrera, Det

Age: 29   2011 Stats: .344-30-105

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-2

5155

A

39.1

1.034

 

Another MVP Caliber year for Cabrera. The 2011 AL Batting Champ hit .356 in the second half leading a well rounded Detroit team to the AL Championship series. I don’t see the move to third hurting him much. I could see a slight drop in power numbers with all of the weight he has dropped to play third. He is in the middle of his prime, and with the addition of Prince Fielder I see a better pitches coming his way. His contact% has been on 4 year incline. You can count on .300-35.100.

 

 

2. Evan Longoria, TB

Age: 26   2011 Stats: .244-31-99

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+5

5245

B

16.8

.847

 

Longoria is young and his elite potential is still on the rise. I would not be too concerned about injuries. Batting Average took a hit in 2011. I would expect a rebound, and if he can get 550+ AB, expect 35-40 HR Power. Showed great PX and xBA.

 

3. Hanley Ramirez, Mia

Age: 28   2011 Stats: .243-10-45

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+2

3235

B-

.05

.709

 

2011 was a year to forget for Hanley. Injuires and clear lack of motivation made him almost worthless to fantasy owners. I have never bought into the hype surrounding Ramirez. He has had only one great season (2009: .342-24-106, 27 SB). I think he can be a nice player, but when the “experts” call him elite I just laugh. His entitlement toward himself  is enough to scare me away from him. Ramirez is a classic case of High Potential. If he could show his talents you might see a season that look like .350-40-120 with 35+ SB. He reminds me of a former High Potential, unmotivated player I remember from St.Louis named J.D. Drew.

 

4. Adrian Beltre, Tex

Age: 33   2011 Stats: .296-32-105

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

0

4145

C+

14.9

.891

 

Beltre showed us 2010 in Boston was no fluke. He hits in a powerful Texas lineup that gives him plenty of chances to drive runs in. My main concern when I evaluate Beltre is his injury history. He missed August last year with a bum hamstring and had a nice injury history before that with Seattle.

5. Ryan Zimmerman, Was

Age: 27   2011 Stats: .289-12-49

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-2

3225

C+

5.1

.799

I feel Zimmerman is very underrated. He has 35+ HR power, and can hit .300+. At 27 he is entering his prime with a lineup in Washington that is only getting better around him. Injuries have been a hurdle for him lately, but he is healthy heading into 2012 and should continue to put up premium stats.

 

6. David Wright, NYM 

Age: 29   2011 Stats: .254-14-61

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+1

4125

D+

2.7

.769

Ever since taking a 93 mph fastball to the head in August of 2009, Wright has showed a steady decline. Not the Elite player that many thought he would be, but is still a talented 3rd baseman. 30 HR power, BA in the .280 range, and steals 15 bases is a nice piece to have on your team. 

 

7.  Kevin Youkilis, Bos

Age: 33   2011 Stats: .258-17-80

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

0

4235

F

12.1

.818

 

Being on the wrong side of 30 has not fared well for Youkilis. Since 2009 he has been on a downward trend that took a huge dive last year when injuries came into the picture. He still put up .818 OPS, but with the high risk of injury don’t expect 25+ HR power to come back.

 

8 Pablo Sandoval, SF

Age: 25   2011 Stats: .315-23-70

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-1

4145

B+

18.4

.914

 

Sandoval came back huge in 2011. At 25 years old, you can only hope the sky is the limit for this rising star. The metrics show 30+ HR potential and with a .315 average could bolt him into the elite discussion. Lets see how 2012 turns out before we crown him, but it should be fun to watch him continue to develop. 

9. Alex Rodriguez, NYY

Age: 36   2011 Stats: .276-16-62

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

0

4125

F

8.1

.818

 

 

You can no longer consider A-Rod elite. You can’t count on much with the declining trends, injury history, age, and overall regression. He still has the potential at his age to hit 25-30 HRs and drive in 100, but staying on the field is the issue.

10. Aramis Ramirez, Mil

Age: 34  2011 Stats: .306-26-93

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-1

4235

C+

15.9

.865

 

Even with injuries, Ramirez has been able to slug 25+ HR for the better part of 4 of the past 5 seasons. He hit .306 and hit 96 RBIs on a horrible Cubs team last season. With the Brewers, I could see him picking up some of the slack Prince left behind.   

 

If you would like to explore more in-depth about Advanced Metrics, here are some amazing resources/people that have made a priceless impact on the way I evaluate players and it has shown in the success I have each year. I do not get any kick backs from this list, just like to promote great materials/information when I see it.

 

http://www.baseballhq.com  – Ron Shandler is amazing, buy Baseball Forecaster… it’s my “Fantasy Bible”

 

http://baseballguys.com/ – Ray Flowers gives simple, but great wisdom on the world of Fantasy Sports. Follow him on twitter @Baseballguys

 

http://www.billjamesonline.com/ – Bill James is the Godfather of SABR, If you are new to the game here is where you start to learn advanced metrics

 

 

Questions? Comments? Follow me on Twitter @KStafford32

 

 

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Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings – First Basemen

 

Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings

Updated 2/21/11

FIRST BASEMEN

 

Kyle Stafford – @KStafford32

Player Rankings by Position:

Catchers

First Base

Second Base

ShortStop

Third Base

Outfield… coming soon

Starting Pitchers… coming soon

Relief Pitchers… coming soon

Closers… coming soon

 

The rankings are based upon the following:

Random Variance Score shows the results random variance had on a player’s 2011 season and the probability that a player will exceed or regress in 2012. Scoring is a -5 to +5 scale that measures several sabermetric categories that reflect if a player is prone to regression.

The Mayberry Method a 0-5 scale of a fantasy players Power, Speed, Batting Average, and Playing Time.

Health & Age- Player is given a score A to F based on the combination of health history and age/regression.

Runs Above Replacement (RAR)- Estimated number of runs a player will generate above his replacement

On Base Plus Slugging Average (OPS)- Combines On Base percentage plus slugging percentage to show a players overall performance. Elite players will bat .900 or higher. Stars will bat .800 or higher. The average player will bat above .650. A bad score is anything under .650

 

1. Joey Votto, Cin

Age: 28   2011 Stats: .309-29-103

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

0

5145

A+

27.6

.947

 

You can’t get a better example of an all around 1st baseman. He hits for power, average, and runs the bases well. He hits both RHP and LHP, and his walk rate shows pitchers fear him. In 2011 he showed a power surge in the second half, 18 HRs. We have yet to see the best from Votto.

 

2. Prince Fielder, Det

Age: 28   2011 Stats: .299-38-120

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

0

5045

A

29.6

.976

With Prince signing with the Tigers, I am still dumbfounded on how he is a good fit for Detroit. I see how they needed a replacement for V-Mart, but I am still searching how a $214 mil makes them better than they were in 2011. Fielder will obviously play 1B/DH, so that adds a valuable DH to those AL Leagues out there. His ceiling in the past is .299-50-141. Changing leagues and moving to Comerica Park, I see a “down” year for Prince. The biggest drop will be in his power. He will have to hook a lot of balls to right. He also goes to a lineup with a lower OBP, and less speed. That equals less RBI oppurtunities and a higher walk rate. Count on .270-30-100, which is still a great season….just not $214 mil great.

 

3. Albert Pujols, LAA

Age: 32   2011 Stats: .299-37-99

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+2

4155

B+

9.3

.906

Pujols had his worst season .299-37-99, which would be a career year for majority of the league. The Angels lineup should provide equal if not more RBI opportunities for Pujols. Random Variance shows he is due a rebound, +2. Pitchers seemed to have found a way to pitch him by pounding him inside. It showed by him receiving the fewest intentional walks he has ever received in a season. With Pujols regressing, it is safe to say he will have great year in 2012, but he is 32….Allegedly.

 

4. Adrian Gonzalez, Bos

Age: 30   2011 Stats: .338-27-117

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-3

4445

A

23.5

.955

The overall numbers show that Gonzalez had a career year, OPS of .955 and BA of .338. Had a drop in power, which has to be due to the comeback of shoulder surgery. Fenway Park is built for him, I could see a healthy Gonzalez having a shot as the top fantasy 1B in 2012.

 

5. Mark Teixeira, NYY 

Age: 32   2011 Stats: .248-39-111

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+2

4135

A-

-4.1

.828

From what I hear from the “experts”, Teixeira is undervalued by fantasy owners. His falling batting average (.308 in 2008 to .248 in 2011) and declining OPS does not warrant him to be a top 5 First Baseman. He does have elite power, hits in an All-Star linup, and the metrics predict a bounce back year in 2012. At 32 he is a safe pick for now but I would not invest in a big way on him.

 

6. Eric Hosmer, KC

Age: 22   2011 Stats: .293-19-78

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

0

3245

A+

-5.6

.830

You can’t get a better keeper pick than Hosmer. He is compared to Joey Votto often. He is doing more at 22 than Votto was doing at 25. I would overpay for this talent yesterday. His ceiling is .330-40-110.

 

7. Paul Konerko, CWS

Age: 36   2011 Stats: .300-31-105

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-1

4135

B-

11.7

.905

Konerko is still putting up elite metrics at 36. Age is always a concern, but he will be undervalued because of his age. Don’t be afraid to add him to your team. 2012: .290-30-100

 

8. Ryan Howard, Phi 

Age: 32   2011 Stats: .253-33-116

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

0

5125

C+

1.9

.830

Howard’s torn ACL and declining numbers in 2011 suggest we have seen the best already. Now as age settles in, be ready for the fall. I strongly believe this will be his last season in Philly. His elite power will be the only true asset to invest in. Keep track on his rehab, hopefully he is ready for Opening Day.

 

9. Freddie Freeman, Atl

Age: 22  2011 Stats: .282-21-76

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-2

3125

A+

-10.6

.282

Freeman is a young player on the rise. I wouldn’t expect All-Star stats, but is a strong keeper and displayed great power in his first full year. His contact rate was low in 2011 which could suggest low expectations. At 22 and on a strong Atlanta team, the risk is worth taking. 2012: .260-25-80

 

10. Lance Berkman, Stl

Age: 36   2011 Stats: .301-31-94

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-1

4135

B-

33.7

.959

Berkman showed what he can produce when healthy. All of the metrics show the numbers are solid and that if he can stay healthy you should expect a repeat. I would not expect 500 AB and he lost the protection of Pujols in the lineup. The move to Firstbase should limit the chance of injury.

 

 

If you would like to explore more in-depth about Advanced Metrics, here are some amazing resources/people that have made a priceless impact on the way I evaluate players and it has shown in the success I have each year. I do not get any kick backs from this list, just like to promote great materials/information when I see it.

http://www.baseballhq.com  – Ron Shandler is amazing, buy Baseball Forecaster… it’s my “Fantasy Bible”

http://baseballguys.com/ – Ray Flowers gives simple, but great wisdom on the world of Fantasy Sports. Follow him on twitter @Baseballguys

http://www.billjamesonline.com/ – Bill James is the Godfather of SABR, If you are new to the game here is where you start to learn advanced metrics

 

Questions? Comments? Follow me on Twitter @KStafford32