The Know-It-All Fantasy Football NON-PPR Rundown

Fantasy Football NON-PPR Rankings

 

Kyle Stafford – @Kstafford32

NON-PPR Formats

1st Round Buys & Sells

Buy:

Aaron Rodgers, GB–  Best Player in this format. Has all the weapons and the offensive line.

LeSean McCoy, PHI– Yes I had him as a bust in PPR formats, but in TD leagues he produces. Expect 1300 yards & 15 Total TDs

Drew Bress, NO– 40+ TDS & 5,000 yards are almost a sure thing for him. Plays a schedule that is top 3 for Quarterbacks this season.

Ray Rice, Bal– 22% Redzone success rate in 2011. Consistent and the go to guy in Baltimore

Brandon Marshall, CHI– If you end up with a late 1st rounder, I would consider Marshall. He is reunited with Cutler where in Denver he averaged 1,300 yards and hit double digit TDs. Some people will bring up his off the field problems, but statistically I look at this as a safe pick.

Sell:

Chris Johnson, TEN–  He doesn’t score TDs anymore. Played 16 games last year and ended up with 4 TDs. Only scored once in the first 8 games.

Cam Newton, CAR– Defenses figured him out in the 2nd half last year. He is a dual threat, but not a big enough threat in the air. He is the most overrated player in Fantasy Football this year. He could have 10 rushing TDs, but if he only passes for 15-17 you are not getting much overall. If you don’t land a Brady, Rodgers, or Bress- wait and get a Romo, Rivers or Ryan in the 6th Round or later.

Matt Stafford, DET– No we are not related. You see 41 TDs last year and you dream big. Let me bring you back to reality. The Lions will be forced to run the ball more this year and they have a nice 3 back set to accomplish that. He threw for a career high 663 times. If you break down his YPA and his TD/ATP ratio, they are horrible. He is no Aaron Rodgers, who threw 162 less passes and had 4 more touchdowns. A top QB, but not elite.

DeMarco Murray, DAL– Through 13 games he only scored twice. Overall he scored on only 5% of his Redzone touches. He is Felix Jones 2.0.

Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC– Hate to pick on him two days in a row, but he just has too many negatives going against him in NON-PPR Formats. His below average offensive line and under performing QB cannot get this successful scoring RB into the redzone. The holdout ordeal doesn’t help either.

Questions? Comments? Follow Me on Twitter @Kstafford32

My NFL Player Awards

With the conclusion of the 2011 NFL regular season, comes the individual player awards.  So before the award winners are named and the season is complete I would like to throw out who I believe deserve the awards, who I believe will win, and my preseason predictions.   So without further ado, my 2011 NFL award winners.

2011 NFL MVP

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

My Preseason Pick: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

My Midseason Pick: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Who I Believe Will Win: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

This has been an unbelievable year at the quarterback position and traditionally the MVP award goes to a quarterback (unless a running back or wide receiver just has an off-the-charts year) so I continue that tradition.  Prior to the 2011 season there had only been two instances of a 5,000 yard passing season and now this year we saw three such performances including Brees becoming the first QB to ever pass for 5,000 yards in a season twice as he shattered Dan Marino’s record for passing in a single season.   We have witnessed the 1st, 2nd, and 5th best passing yardage totals in NFL history this season.  He also set an NFL record for most 300 yard games in a season and completion percentage while leading the most prolific offense in NFL history in terms of yardage and first downs. This is a tough call because I cannot discount what Rodgers has done this season – posting a 122.5 passer rating and passing for 45 touchdowns to only 6 interceptions while leading the Packers to a 15-1 record – and I’ve been conflicted the last couple of weeks between Rodgers and Brees but luckily something happened today that gave the edge to Brees.  Today Matt Flynn took the reins of a great Packers team and did something no Packers QB has ever done, not Rodgers, not Favre, not Starr.  He threw for 480 yards and 6 touchdowns – both Packers franchise records.  I am not trying to discount Rodgers but the MVP award is for the Most Valuable Player.  Without Rodgers, the Packers would still be a playoff team – this is not true of the Saints.  I believe that Drew Brees is more valuable to his team than any other player in the NFL and  for that reason he’s my MVP.

*On a sidenote Steve McNair and Peyton Manning showed us a few years ago there can be co-MVPs and this is one year where I would completely satisfied with Brees and Rodgers sharing the award

But High Fives all around to:

1. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

2. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

3. Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

4. Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions

5. Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans

Offensive Player of the Year

Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

My Preseason Pick: Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings

My Midseason Pick: Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions

Who I Believe Will Win: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

This was another tough award because a case can be made here for any of the 3 5,000 yard club quarterbacks, Calvin Johnson, and of course the all-purpose yards record holder Darren Sproles but I have to give the nod to Gronk.  He shattered the record for touchdowns by a tight end in a single season with 17.   If you throw in his more than 1,300 yards receiving and you realize that doesn’t make Gronkowski an elite NFL tight end, it makes him an elite NFL receiver.  When you look at his numbers you will begin to realize that he was responsible for nearly a third of Tom Brady’s passing yards this season and almost half of his touchdowns.   I would argue that Gronkowski was the Patriots’ MVP this year and was a big part of New England wrapping up the #1 seed in the AFC this year and Tom Brady posting the second best passing yards total in NFL history.

But High Fives all around to:

1. Darren Sproles, RB, New Orleans Saints

2. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

3. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

4. Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions

5. Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

Defensive Player of the Year

Jared Allen, DE, Minnesota Vikings

My Preseason Pick: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Detroit Lions

My Midseason Pick: Jared Allen, DE, Minnesota Vikings

Who I Believe Will Win: Jared Allen, DE, Minnesota Vikings

It is a shame that the Vikings were so bad this season because Jared Allen just turned in one of the best defensive seasons any player has ever had.  He capped off an amazing 22 sack season with a 3.5 sack performance against the Bears on Sunday falling half a sack shy of Michael Strahan’s record.  Of course in Allen’s defense he didn’t have Brett Favre to fall on the ground for him like Strahan did.   Many know that I define Future Hall of Famer as someone who if they were to retire from their sport today they would get elected into the Hall of Fame.  This season with his 22 sack performance and becoming the 2nd fastest player to the 100 sack club, Jared Allen is indeed worthy of that title.  This was one of the easiest awards for me to choose because after today’s performance – who else would you choose?

But High Fives all around to:

1. DeMarcus Ware, OLB, Dallas Cowboys

2. London Fletcher, ILB, Washington Redskins

3. Brian Cushing, ILB, Houston Texans

Comeback Player of the Year

Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

Preseason Pick: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

Midseason Pick: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

Who I Believe Will Win: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

There were many who were ready to label former #1 overall pick Matthew Stafford a “bust” in just his third season in the league because of an unbelievable streak of unrelated injuries.  There were many who thought he was just another cursed Lions quarterback.  Then all of a sudden this season not only did Stafford stay healthy, he became just the 4th quarterback to pass for over 5,000 yards in a season and had 41 passing touchdowns leading the Lions to their first playoff appearance in over 10 years.  There were some great comeback stories this year but in challenging for the NFL MVP award, Stafford takes the cake.

But High Fives all around to:

1. Nick Barnett, ILB, Buffalo Bills

2. D’Qwell Jackson, ILB, Cleveland Browns

3. Elvis Dumervil, DE, Denver Broncos

4. Plaxico Burress, WR, New York Jets

NFL Coach of the Year

Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers

Preseason Pick: Gary Kubiak, Houston Texans

Midseason Pick: Chan Gailey, Buffalo Bills

Who I Believe Will Win: Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers

The only thing I had the 49ers wrapping up in Week 17 before the season started was the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.  I never really thought the 49ers would make the playoffs, let alone win the NFC West or wrap up a first round bye.  What Harbaugh has pulled off this season is nothing short of incredible.  His team neglected to draft a 1st round quarterback when many (myself included) said that was what needed to be done and lost their second best defensive player and in turn they put together maybe the best defense in the League and have gotten a solid season out of Alex Smith.  I have been really impressed with Harbaugh and believe the 49ers will compete for years to come.

But High Fives All Around to:

1. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals

2. Gary Kubiak, Houston Texans

3. John Fox, Denver Broncos

4. Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions

5. Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers

NFL Executive of the Year

Mike Brown, Owner/President, Cincinnati Bengals

My Preseason Pick: N/A

My Midseason Pick: Mike Brown, Owner/President, Cincinnati Bengals

Who I Believe Will Win: Mike Brown, Owner/President, Cincinnati Bengals

I have had a few months to soak it in and am still in absolute awe of what Mike Brown has pulled off this season.  He shipped Chad Ochocinco to New England for a draft pick and then he used his first round draft pick to draft the ultra-athletic A.J. Green who just turned in the best rookie WR campaign since Anquan Boldin in 2003.  He then used his 2nd round draft pick on QB Andy Dalton who had a Pro Bowl caliber season and led the Bengals to the playoffs and just their third winning season in the last 20 years.   Nobody saw this kind of success for the Bengals but Brown had a plan.  And if that wasn’t enough, Brown then took a quarterback who was sitting on his couch and the Bengals had no use for (Carson Palmer) and traded him right before the deadline to the Raiders for two first round draft picks.  Brown has the Bengals in position to not only compete this year but for years to come.

But High Fives all around to: Just Mike Brown, no one else even comes close…

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers

Preseason Pick: Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints

Midseason Pick: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers

Who I Believe Will Win: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers

I often discussed Cam Newton as a high risk/high reward draft pick for the Panthers and my personal thoughts were high risk and that he was going to be garbage.  I could not have been more wrong.  Cam Newton was not only impressive, not only did he turn in one of the best QB seasons of all time – he turned in  one of the best quarterback seasons of all time.  He became the first rookie quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards and the first quarterback to ever throw for 4,000 yards and rush for 500 in the same season.  Newton’s 4,051 yards passing and 706 yards rushing are impressive enough but even more amazing is that Newton set a record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in a single season with 14.  Which by the way was more rushing touchdowns than every running back in the league except LeSean McCoy.   I have been amazed by Newton this season and looking forward to some really great things from him and the Panthers in coming years.

But High Fives All Around to:

1. Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

2. A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

3. Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens

4. DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys

5. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Von Miller, OLB, Denver Broncos

My Preseason Pick: Von Miller, OLB, Denver Broncos

My Midseason Pick: Von Miller, OLB, Denver Broncos

Who I Believe Will Win: Von Miller, OLB, Denver Broncos

When the clock started ticking last April for the Denver Broncos, I thought Von Miller was the obvious choice.  Miller reminds me alot of Patrick Willis his rookie year, someone that just came into the league and right away and established himself as one of the best linebackers in the NFL.   I thought coming into the draft that Von Miller or Patrick Peterson were the most talented, NFL-ready players in the draft and Miller did not let me down.  In his rookie season, he finished 3rd in the AFC in sacks and while all the talk was about Tebow, Miller is the bigger story and the real hero of the Broncos making their postseason run.  He was the young leader of one of the NFL’s best defenses and he will be a premier linebacker for seasons to come.

But High Fives All Around to:

1. Aldon Smith, DE, San Francisco 49ers

2. Patrick Peterson, CB, Arizona Cardinals

3. Adrian Clayborn, DE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4. Ryan Kerrigan, OLB, Washington Redskins

5. Mason Foster, MLB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Questions? Comments? Snide Remarks? Let me hear ’em!


2011 NFL Midseason Awards

It’s hard to believe but we’re already 8 games into the NFL season.  I always enjoy taking the middle of the season to take a look at what we’ve seen thus far and of course to see how what we’ve seen so far matches up to my predictions.  The people who I would give my midseason awards to are players who, if the season ended today, I believe would be taking home those awards.  There are some of these I really don’t expect to change much and others that I could see fluctuate drastically (especially rookie awards given that some rookies have only 2 or 3 weeks under their belts).  Without further ado – My Midseason NFL awards.

NFL MVP – Aaron Rodgers, QB; Green Bay Packers

2011 Stats (7 games): 2,372 yards passing, 20 TDs, 2 rushing TDs, 3 INT, 71.5% Completion

Aaron Rodgers is definitely running away with this award.  Right now he is only pace to finish the season with over 5,000 yards passing, 45 TDs, 4 rushing TDs, and only 7 interceptions.  The most important stat of all is that his Packers are 7-0 right now and poised to become the first team to repeat as NFC Champions since, well, the Green Bay Packers.

My Preseason Pick: Aaron Rodgers, QB; Green Bay Packers

But high fives all around to: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Fred Jackson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Calvin Johnson

Comeback Player of the Year – Matthew Stafford, QB; Detroit Lions

2011 Stats (8 games): 19 TDs, 2,179 yds passing, 4 INT

The Detroit Lions have brought the college spread offense to the NFL.  With so many talented athletes and young offensive weapons, the Detroit Lions (yes, you heard me right) have one of the most exciting offenses in the NFL.  Stafford has led the Lions to a number of thrilling comeback victories.  The former #1 pick has rebounded from multiple injuries in a big way and has shown that he has what it takes to be the first Lions franchise QB in over 50 years.

My Preseason Pick: Matthew Stafford, QB; Detroit Lions

But high fives all around to: Nick Barnett and D’Qwell Jackson

Offensive Player of the Year – Calvin Johnson, WR; Detroit Lions

2011 Stats (8 games): 47 Receptions, 804 yds, 11 TDs, 17.1 YPC

Megatron has shown the freak athleticism that made him the #2 overall pick in the 2007 NFL draft.  He has established himself as an elite NFL wideout.  He is a big part of the reason that Stafford is having such a breakout year and that the Lions are fighting for 1st place in the NFC North.   He is on pace to finish with over 1600 yds receiving and 22 receiving TDs (1 shy of Randy Moss’s single-season record).

But high fives all around to: Fred Jackson, Matt Forte, Aaron Rodgers, and Adrian Peterson

My Preseason Pick: Adrian Peterson, RB; Minnesota Vikings

Defensive Player of the Year – Jared Allen, DE; Minnesota Vikings

2011 Stats (8 games): 12.5 sacks, 34 TKLs, 3 FFs, 1 INT

On a dreadful defensive unit, All-Pro Defensive End Jared Allen has been the sole bright spot.  He has had a sack in every game this season and is currently on pace to shatter Michael Strahan’s single season sack record of 22.5 and Chris Doleman’s Vikings franchise record of 21.  Allen has shown that even with half of the famed “Wall of America” no longer there he is still a force to be reckoned with.

My Preseason Pick: Ndamukong Suh, DT; Detroit Lions

But high fives all around to: Patrick Willis, Darelle Revis, Justin Smith, DeMarcus Ware, and Charles Woodson

Coach of the Year – Chan Gailey, Buffalo Bills

Many were quick (myself included) to crown the New England Patriots the AFC East Champions and the New York Jets the runner-up and AFC Wildcard.  The only thing we had crowned the Buffalo Bills was the winners of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.  Gailey though has his Bills sitting in 1st place at the halfway mark in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL.  He has gotten the most out of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and running back Fred Jackson.  He has a defense that is making plays and Nick Barnett has resurrected his career.  The Buffalo Bills have been exciting to watch and appear to be a team destined to make the playoffs.

My Preseason Pick: Gary Kubiak, Houston Texans

But high fives all around to: Marvin Lewis, Jim Harbaugh, Jim Schwartz, Gary Kubiak, and Mike McCarthy

NFL Executive of the Year – Mike Brown, Owner/President; Cincinnati Bengals

Is there anyone right now that deserves more credit than Mike Brown?  He shipped Chad Ochocinco to the New England Patriots for two draft picks because he had grown weary of him.   Mike Brown then refused to trade Carson Palmer and instead let him retire.  He followed that up with an unbelievable draft by getting the athletic A.J. Green at WR in the first round and then QB Andy Dalton in the 2nd round who already have the Bengals with more wins than most thought they would have all season.  Regardless of all that, Brown takes home the prize for taking a retired QB that he was getting nothing out of in Palmer and trading him to Oakland for, potentially, two first round draft picks.  The Bengals are poised to compete for years to come because of the resolve of Mike Brown.

My Preseason Pick: N/A

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Cam Newton, QB; Carolina Panthers

2011 Stats (8 games): 11 TDs, 9 INT,  2,393 yds passing

I won’t lie, I thought Cam Newton was going to be garbage in this league.  While it is still too early to say what kind of Newton will have the future indeed looks promising.  The Panthers came out in Week 1 and Cam Newton became the first QB in NFL history to pass for more than 400 yards in his rookie debut.  The following week he passed for more than 400 yards again when he played the Green Bay Packers.  Because of Newton, Steve Smith, who was once unhappy playing for Carolina, is now leading the league in receiving yards and Newton generates the large majority of his team’s offense whether it be in the air or on the ground.  While I have been very impressed with this year’s rookie class (and crop of young quarterbacks), Newton is the obvious choice.

My Preseason Pick: Mark Ingram, RB; New Orleans Saints

But high fives all around to: Andy Dalton and A.J. Green

Defensive Rookie of the Year – Von Miller, OLB; Denver Broncos

2011 Stats (7 games): 26 TKLs, 6.0 sacks, 2 FFs

I thought the Von Miller was an obvious pick for the Denver Broncos.  As far as players go, I really thought he was the most NFL-ready player in the entire draft.  While Denver has just been awful, Von Miller has been a real bright spot for this team.  As a rookie he already has 6.0 sacks!  Though not as prolific, I see a lot of similarities between his rookie year and that of Patrick Willis.  I fully expect Von Miller to keep up this production and be a Pro-Bowler for years to come.

My Preseason Pick: Von Miller, OLB; Denver Broncos

But high fives all around to: Ryan Kerrigan, Aldon Smith, Marcell Dareus, and Patrick Peterson

Questions? Comments? Snide Remarks? Let me hear ’em!