Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings – First Basemen

 

Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings

Updated 2/21/11

FIRST BASEMEN

 

Kyle Stafford – @KStafford32

Player Rankings by Position:

Catchers

First Base

Second Base

ShortStop

Third Base

Outfield… coming soon

Starting Pitchers… coming soon

Relief Pitchers… coming soon

Closers… coming soon

 

The rankings are based upon the following:

Random Variance Score shows the results random variance had on a player’s 2011 season and the probability that a player will exceed or regress in 2012. Scoring is a -5 to +5 scale that measures several sabermetric categories that reflect if a player is prone to regression.

The Mayberry Method a 0-5 scale of a fantasy players Power, Speed, Batting Average, and Playing Time.

Health & Age- Player is given a score A to F based on the combination of health history and age/regression.

Runs Above Replacement (RAR)- Estimated number of runs a player will generate above his replacement

On Base Plus Slugging Average (OPS)- Combines On Base percentage plus slugging percentage to show a players overall performance. Elite players will bat .900 or higher. Stars will bat .800 or higher. The average player will bat above .650. A bad score is anything under .650

 

1. Joey Votto, Cin

Age: 28   2011 Stats: .309-29-103

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

0

5145

A+

27.6

.947

 

You can’t get a better example of an all around 1st baseman. He hits for power, average, and runs the bases well. He hits both RHP and LHP, and his walk rate shows pitchers fear him. In 2011 he showed a power surge in the second half, 18 HRs. We have yet to see the best from Votto.

 

2. Prince Fielder, Det

Age: 28   2011 Stats: .299-38-120

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

0

5045

A

29.6

.976

With Prince signing with the Tigers, I am still dumbfounded on how he is a good fit for Detroit. I see how they needed a replacement for V-Mart, but I am still searching how a $214 mil makes them better than they were in 2011. Fielder will obviously play 1B/DH, so that adds a valuable DH to those AL Leagues out there. His ceiling in the past is .299-50-141. Changing leagues and moving to Comerica Park, I see a “down” year for Prince. The biggest drop will be in his power. He will have to hook a lot of balls to right. He also goes to a lineup with a lower OBP, and less speed. That equals less RBI oppurtunities and a higher walk rate. Count on .270-30-100, which is still a great season….just not $214 mil great.

 

3. Albert Pujols, LAA

Age: 32   2011 Stats: .299-37-99

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+2

4155

B+

9.3

.906

Pujols had his worst season .299-37-99, which would be a career year for majority of the league. The Angels lineup should provide equal if not more RBI opportunities for Pujols. Random Variance shows he is due a rebound, +2. Pitchers seemed to have found a way to pitch him by pounding him inside. It showed by him receiving the fewest intentional walks he has ever received in a season. With Pujols regressing, it is safe to say he will have great year in 2012, but he is 32….Allegedly.

 

4. Adrian Gonzalez, Bos

Age: 30   2011 Stats: .338-27-117

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-3

4445

A

23.5

.955

The overall numbers show that Gonzalez had a career year, OPS of .955 and BA of .338. Had a drop in power, which has to be due to the comeback of shoulder surgery. Fenway Park is built for him, I could see a healthy Gonzalez having a shot as the top fantasy 1B in 2012.

 

5. Mark Teixeira, NYY 

Age: 32   2011 Stats: .248-39-111

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+2

4135

A-

-4.1

.828

From what I hear from the “experts”, Teixeira is undervalued by fantasy owners. His falling batting average (.308 in 2008 to .248 in 2011) and declining OPS does not warrant him to be a top 5 First Baseman. He does have elite power, hits in an All-Star linup, and the metrics predict a bounce back year in 2012. At 32 he is a safe pick for now but I would not invest in a big way on him.

 

6. Eric Hosmer, KC

Age: 22   2011 Stats: .293-19-78

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

0

3245

A+

-5.6

.830

You can’t get a better keeper pick than Hosmer. He is compared to Joey Votto often. He is doing more at 22 than Votto was doing at 25. I would overpay for this talent yesterday. His ceiling is .330-40-110.

 

7. Paul Konerko, CWS

Age: 36   2011 Stats: .300-31-105

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-1

4135

B-

11.7

.905

Konerko is still putting up elite metrics at 36. Age is always a concern, but he will be undervalued because of his age. Don’t be afraid to add him to your team. 2012: .290-30-100

 

8. Ryan Howard, Phi 

Age: 32   2011 Stats: .253-33-116

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

0

5125

C+

1.9

.830

Howard’s torn ACL and declining numbers in 2011 suggest we have seen the best already. Now as age settles in, be ready for the fall. I strongly believe this will be his last season in Philly. His elite power will be the only true asset to invest in. Keep track on his rehab, hopefully he is ready for Opening Day.

 

9. Freddie Freeman, Atl

Age: 22  2011 Stats: .282-21-76

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-2

3125

A+

-10.6

.282

Freeman is a young player on the rise. I wouldn’t expect All-Star stats, but is a strong keeper and displayed great power in his first full year. His contact rate was low in 2011 which could suggest low expectations. At 22 and on a strong Atlanta team, the risk is worth taking. 2012: .260-25-80

 

10. Lance Berkman, Stl

Age: 36   2011 Stats: .301-31-94

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-1

4135

B-

33.7

.959

Berkman showed what he can produce when healthy. All of the metrics show the numbers are solid and that if he can stay healthy you should expect a repeat. I would not expect 500 AB and he lost the protection of Pujols in the lineup. The move to Firstbase should limit the chance of injury.

 

 

If you would like to explore more in-depth about Advanced Metrics, here are some amazing resources/people that have made a priceless impact on the way I evaluate players and it has shown in the success I have each year. I do not get any kick backs from this list, just like to promote great materials/information when I see it.

http://www.baseballhq.com  – Ron Shandler is amazing, buy Baseball Forecaster… it’s my “Fantasy Bible”

http://baseballguys.com/ – Ray Flowers gives simple, but great wisdom on the world of Fantasy Sports. Follow him on twitter @Baseballguys

http://www.billjamesonline.com/ – Bill James is the Godfather of SABR, If you are new to the game here is where you start to learn advanced metrics

 

Questions? Comments? Follow me on Twitter @KStafford32

 

 

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The Greatest Game Never Played – 3rd Inning

This is the third part of my nine-part “Greatest Game Never Played”, if you have not read any of the prior installments, it would behoove you to do so o to better understand the premise of this writing.  I would appreciate any feedback you can give on either note (love it, hate it, where you agree, where you disagree, etc.)   As always an asterisk next to a player’s name denotes them as a current Major League player.  Happy Reading!

"You see, you spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time."~ Jim Bouton, Ball Four (1970)

When I was young, I played catcher.  I wore the mask and I had the glove and I spent the entire game behind homeplate.   But let’s be honest – the catcher in T-ball doesn’t really do anything.  As a fan, I have always been amazed by the athletes who play catcher.  The stamina they have to crouch behind homeplate for nine innings day in and day out; the knowledge they have of every batter and their pitchers to know what pitches to call; and of course the chance they get to make a play at the plate.  As a T-ball catcher, I didn’t do any of those things.  I didn’t wear the knee savers because I just stood there.  I didn’t call pitches because the ball sat on a tee.  And I didn’t ever get to make a play at the plate – but there was that one time I came close.

I was about six or seven and we were playing a game against the Conception Junction T-Ball team.   I don’t remember the score for the life of me but I do recall that we were winning by 2 or 3 runs.  It was the bottom of the second to last inning (I believe we played 6) and the bases were loaded with no outs.   The batter came up and hit the ball all the way to the outfield grass (which was far by our standards).

The base runners started advancing and behind me I heard my Dad yelling, “Cover home Devan! Cover home!”.  Now I loved baseball but being a young kid I really did not understand a lot of the terminology that pertained to the sport.

My dad continued to yell for me to “cover home” and I was not going to disobey an order like that so I got down on all fours and physically covered the plate with my body – leaving the slew of baserunners waiting in line to score confused.   My dad had yelled for me to cover home, how was I supposed to know?

As I continue my bid for a perfect game, I will choose my starting catchers, reserve catchers, and first basemen for my American League and National League All-Star teams.

THE CATCHERS

"No baseball pitcher would be worth a damn without a catcher who could handle the hot fastball." ~ Casey Stengel, Hall of Fame Manager

AMERICAN LEAGUE –

Starting Catcher:  Lawrence “Yogi” Berra (1946-1965)

Nickname(s):  Yogi

Team(s):  New York Yankees (1946 – 1963)

Hall of Fame:  1972 (second ballot)

Honors:  18 x All-Star, 3 x AL MVP, New York Yankees #8 retired, Major League Baseball All-Century Team

Rings: 13 – 1947, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1956, 1958, 1961, 1962, 1969, 1977, 1978

Career Batting Avg:  .285

Career HR:  358

Career RBI:  1,430

Signature Moment:  In Game 3 of the 1947 World Series against the Brooklyn Dodgers, Berra hit the first pinch-hit home run in World Series history off Ralph Branca.

Fun Fact:  He picked up his nickname from a friend who thought he resembled a Hindu holy man (a Yogi) they had seen in a movie.

Widely regarded as one of the greatest catchers in history, Berra holds the World Series records for most games, at-bats, hits, doubles, singles, games caught, and putouts.  He won 10 championships as a player and famously caught Don Larsen’s perfect game in the 1956 World Series (the first no-hitter in postseason history).   What made Berra’s style of play unique was his incredible bat control.   He was able to swing low and away for the homer but also swing at higher pitches for line drives.  Five times, Yogi had more home runs in a season than strikeouts.  On defense, he led the league in double plays six times (an MLB record).  Off the field, Yogi Berra is best known for his Yogi-isms (“It ain’t over till it’s over”) and being the inspiration for the Hanna-Barbera character Yogi Bear.

Reserve Catcher: Mickey Cochrane (1925- 1937)

Nickname(s): “Black Mike”

Team(s):  Philadelphia A’s (Present-Day Oakland Athletics) (1925-1933) 

Hall of Fame: 1947 (Fifth ballot) 

Honors: 2 x All-Star, 2 x AL MVP

Rings: 3 – 1929, 1930, 1935 

Career Batting Avg:  .320

Career HR: 119 

Career RBI: 832 

Signature Moment:  On August 2, 1933, Cochrane hit the second cycle of his career. 

Fun Fact:  New York Yankees Hall of Famer Mickey Mantle was named after Mickey Cochrane. 

Mickey Cochrane is relatively unknown to most today but he is one of the greatest catchers to ever play the game. The reason that I had to choose Mickey Cochrane is because he was great at two things – getting on base (his .419 career on base percentage is among the greatest all-time and second among catchers only to Joe Mauer) and making plays at the plate.  In today’s game, the ability to make a play at the plate is almost a lost art but Cochrane had an uncanny ability not only to do this but also to pick off baserunners.  As a batter, he was a great line drive hitter and his .320 lifetime batting average is the highest among catchers with at least 5000 at-bats.  His hitting was great, his defense was exceptional, and his leadership was irreplaceable.  It was his leadership that took the Detroit Tigers (traded from the A’s in 1934) from being a fifth place team to winning the 1934 American League pennant and the 1935 World Series over the Chicago Cubs.  In 1947, Cochrane was the first catcher ever elected into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Others Considered:

1. Carlton Fisk, Chicago White Sox/Boston Red Sox (1969 – 1993) 

2. Joe Mauer*, Minnesota Twins (2004 – Present)

3. Bill Dickey, New York Yankees (1928 – 1946)

4. Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez*, Texas Rangers (1991 – Present)

NATIONAL LEAGUE –

Starting Catcher: Josh Gibson (1930 – 1946)

Nickname(s):  “Black Babe Ruth” 

Team(s):  Homestead Grays/Pittsburgh Crawfords (1930 – 1936, 1937 – 1939, 1942 – 1946) 

Hall of Fame:  1972 

Honors: 10 x Negro League All-Star, 9 x Negro League Home Run Champion, 4 Negro League Batting Titles

Rings:  2 (Negro League World Series) – 1943, 1944 

Career Batting Avg: .359 to .384 (depending on the source)

Career HR:  Approximately 800 (according to the Baseball Hall of Fame) 

Career Slugging %:  .648 

Signature Moment:  According to Jack Marshall, in 1934 Gibson hit one over the third deck of the left field of Yankee Stadium for the only fair ball ever hit out of Yankee Stadium. 

Fun Fact:  Gibson played professionally in the U.S., Mexico, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico.

Unfortunately many people today know nothing of the greatest homerun hitter of all time.  Though a ridiculous “gentlemen’s agreement” kept him out of the majors due to the color of his skin, Gibson could flat out hit and was great defensively behind the plate.  Kansas City Monarchs manager Buck O’Neil often talked about how there was no sound sweeter than the crack of a bat and that he only heard that sound from three batters in all his years around baseball:  Babe Ruth, Bo Jackson, and Josh Gibson.  The legend of Josh Gibson grew so much that people used to tell stories like this one.

“In the last of the ninth at Pittsburgh, down a run, with a runner on base and two outs, Gibson hits one high and deep, so far into the twilight sky that it disappears from sight, apparently winning the game. The next day, the same two teams are playing again, now in Washington. Just as the teams have positioned themselves on the field, a ball comes falling out of the sky and a Washington outfielder grabs it. The umpire yells to Gibson, “You’re out! In Pittsburgh, yesterday!”

Unfortunately for baseball, Gibson died at age 35 in 1947 just four months before Jackie Robinson broke baseball’s color barrier.  Gibson would without a doubt be my National League catcher because I don’t think there is any hitter I would rather watch in all of history than Gibson.

"You don't compare anybody to Johnny Bench. You don't want to embarass anybody." ~ Sparky Anderson

Reserve Catcher:  Johnny Bench (1967 – 1983) 

Nickname(s):  “Hands”, “Little General”

Team(s): Cincinnati Reds (1967 – 1983)

Hall of Fame: 1989 (1st ballot) 

Honors: 14 x All-Star, 10 x Gold Glove Winner, 2 x NL MVP, 1968 Rookie of the Year, 1976 World Series MVP, #5 retired by the Cincinnati Reds 

Rings:  2 – 1975, 1976

Career Batting Avg: .267 

Career HR:  389 

Career RBIs: 1,376 

Signature Moment:  In 1983, Bench retired as the leader in home runs among all catchers.  He has since been passed by Mike Piazza and Carlton Fisk.

Fun Fact:  In 1967, Bench’s rookie year, Ted Williams signed a ball for Bench inscribing on it that Bench would be a “Hall of Famer for sure!”

Considered by ESPN to be the greatest catcher of all time, Johnny Bench only played the position because his father thought it would be the quickest route to the Majors.  He ended his career with a remarkable .991 fielding percentage.  He was a great hitter with 2048 career hits and 389 home runs and was a key component of the “Big Red Machine”.  Even more remarkable was his ability to play defense.  He is still remembered for his ability to field the ball and his strong arm that allowed him to lead the league put-outs and runners caught stealing.  Johnny Bench may very well be the greatest all-around catcher to ever play the game.

Others Considered:

1.  Mike Piazza, Los Angeles Dodgers/New York Mets (1992 – 2007)

2.  Gabby Hartnett, Chicago Cubs (1922 – 1941)

3. Gary Carter, Montreal Expos (1974 – 1992)

4. Roy Campanella, Brooklyn Dodgers (1948 – 1957)

FIRST BASEMEN –

Costello: Look, you gotta first baseman? Abbott: Certainly. Costello: Who's playing first? Abbott: That's right. ~ Abbot & Costello, Who's on First?

I grew up thinking that first basemen were the best players on every team.  I remember that Wally Joyner was my favorite Royal and he played first.  And I remember that in Little Big League, Lou Collins, the Twins’ best player, was also at first.  I remember the home run race back in 1998 and everyone in Missouri was pulling for Mark McGwire – a first baseman.

In today’s MLB, we live in a golden age of first basemen with players like Albert Pujols, Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder, Justin Morneau, Joey Votto, and Adrian Gonzalez all residing 90 feet from the plate.  This has not always been the case.  There have been many great first baseman but never so many at one time which actually made first base one of the easiest positions to choose for this game.

AMERICAN LEAGUE –

1B:  Lou Gehrig (1923 – 1939)

Nickname(s):  “The Iron Horse”

Team(s):  New York Yankees (1923 – 1939)

Hall of Fame:  1939 (Unanimous) 

Honors:  7 x All-Star, 2 x AL MVP, Yankees Team Captain (1935 – 1939), Yankees #4 retired, MLB All-Century Team 

Rings:  6 – 1927, 1928, 1932, 1936, 1937, 1938)

Career Batting Avg: .340

Career HR:  493

Career RBI:  1,995

Career Hits: 2,721

Signature Moment:  On June 3, 1932 in a game against the Philadelphia Athletics (Oakland A’s), Lou Gehrig hit 4 home runs in one game which is a Major League record.  His fifth hit of the day was a leaping catch made by Al Simmons at the center field wall – otherwise he would have had 5 and sat alone as the record holder. 

Fun Fact:  Lou Gehrig was the first athlete to ever appear on a Wheaties Box.

You remember how I mentioned in Part I that this was not particularly meant to be a position by position ranking?  Well throw that out the window here because Lou Gehrig was, without a doubt, the best first baseman to ever play the game.  This was as obvious of a choice for me as spinach for Popeye or lasagna for Garfield.  If I could build an all-time team around one player – no doubt in my mind that that player would be the Iron Horse.   This is a guy who showed up every day and played the game because he loved it.  He started and played in 2,130 straight games (a record until Cal Ripken, Jr. broke it in 1995), he has 23 career grand slams, scored the winning run in 8 World Series games, has the most extra base hits of a first baseman, had a .765 slugging percentage in 1927, and was so good that the Hall of Fame waived the waiting period rule so they could vote him in a few months after he retired.   Had Gehrig not come down with ALS (Lou Gehrig’s Disease), he would have likely finished his career with around 3,700 hits and 650 homeruns.

More than that, he was a great all around person and his famed “Luckiest Man” speech, in my opinion, is the single most moving moment in the history of sport.

Others Considered:

1.  Jimmie Foxx, Philadelphia A’s/Boston Red Sox (1925 – 1942, 1944 – 1945)

2.  Jim Thome*, Cleveland Indians (1991 – Present)

3.   Mark McGwire, Oakland A’s (1986 – 2001)

4.  Eddie Murray, Baltimore Orioles (1977 – 1997)

5.  Frank Thomas, Chicago White Sox (1990 – 2008) 

 

NATIONAL LEAGUE –

1B:  Albert Pujols* (2001 – Present)

Nickname(s):  “Prince Albert”, “El Hombre”, “The Machine”

Team(s):  St. Louis Cardinals (2001 – Present)

Hall of Fame:   

Honors:  9 x All-Star, 3 x NL MVP, 2 x Hank Aaron Award, 6 x Silver Slugger, 2 x Gold Glove Award, 2001 NL Rookie of the Year, 2004 NLCS MVP, 2008 Roberto Clemente Award, 2003 NL Batting Champion, 2 x NL Home Run Champion, 2010 NL RBI Champion 

Rings: 1 – 2006

Career Batting Avg:  .331

Career HR:  409

Career RBI: 1,234

Signature Moment: On August 15, 2010, Pujols hit his 30th home run of the season extending his MLB record of 10 straight 30 + home run seasons.

Fun Fact:  In his first ever college baseball game at Maple Woods Community College in Kansas City, Pujols turned an unassisted triple play and hit a grand slam.

Well Joe Mauer and Jim Thome both came close but it’s Albert Pujols who is my first current Major Leaguer to make the cut.  While this was a tough decision, the truth is that Albert Pujols is the best player in the game today and there is a reason why ESPN named him the best player of the last decade.  At his current pace, he should hit close to 800 home runs in his career.  He currently holds (or will soon hold) every significant record in the history of the St. Louis Cardinals franchise.  When you’re talking about a franchise that has boasted great names like Brock, Medwick, and Musial and that has the 2nd most World Series trophies of any franchise – that’s a significant distinction.

My main reason for picking Pujols though is because I have now seen him play on three occassions and it is nothing short of remarkable to watch.  I remember my first trip to Busch Stadium in July of 2008.  My friend Doug and I had gotten tickets to see the Cardinals play the Padres.  I was excited to watch Pujols play only to show up at the stadium and see that LaRussa was resting Albert.  The Padres started off the game strong and in the 7th inning were up 5 – 1.  The Red birds faithful were slowly leaving the stadium but then something happened – LaRussa decided to pinch hit Albert.  Slowly the seats began to fill up, there was a new energy at Busch, and the whole team had a new lease on the game.  The Cardinals ended up winning that game 9 – 5 on a walk-off grand slam.  As many numbers as I could use to describe The Machine, what makes him great are the intangibles.

Others Considered:

1. Buck Leonard, Homestead Grays (1934 – 1950)

2. Pete Rose, Cincinnati Reds (1963 – 1986)

3. Willie McCovey, San Francisco Giants (1959 – 1980)

4. Jeff Bagwell, Houston Astros (1991 – 2005)

Well there you have it, heading into the 4th inning I have selected my starting and reserve catcher for each team and at first base I have the greatest first baseman of all time for the American League and a guy who could one day be in that conversation for the National League.  Yes sir (or ma’am), this game is shaping up to be truly perfect.

I can see myself grabbing a seat on the first base line and sitting there an hour before the game with two Chicago Style hot dogs on my lap and a large frozen lemonade from the “lee-mo-nade, lee-mo-nade, LEEE-MO-NAAADE!” guy.  Gibson and Bench are playing catch near the dugout as Gehrig steps up to the plate for some B.P. and begins absolutely crushing balls.  Yup, so far this really is a perfect game.

In the 4th inning, I will select my 2nd base, 3rd base, shortstop, and utility players.

Questions? Comments? Snide Remarks? Let me hear ’em!!