Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings – Third Base

 

Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings

Updated 2/21/11

 

 

Third Base

 

Kyle Stafford – @KStafford32

Player Rankings by Position:

Catchers

First Base

Second Base

ShortStop

Third Base

Outfield… coming soon

Starting Pitchers… coming soon

Relief Pitchers… coming soon

Closers… coming soon

 

The rankings are based upon the following:

 

Random Variance Score- shows the results random variance had on a player’s 2011 season and the probability that a player will exceed or regress in 2012. Scoring is a -5 to +5 scale that measures several sabermetric categories that reflect if a player is prone to regression.

 

The Mayberry Method- a 0-5 scale of a fantasy players Power, Speed, Batting Average, and Playing Time.

 

Health & Age- Player is given a score A to F based on the combination of health history and age/regression.

 

Runs Above Replacement (RAR)- Estimated number of runs a player will generate above his replacement

 

On Base Plus Slugging Average (OPS)- Combines On Base percentage plus slugging percentage to show a players overall performance. Elite players will bat .900 or higher. Stars will bat .800 or higher. The average player will bat above .650. A bad score is anything under .650

 

 

1. Miguel Cabrera, Det

Age: 29   2011 Stats: .344-30-105

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-2

5155

A

39.1

1.034

 

Another MVP Caliber year for Cabrera. The 2011 AL Batting Champ hit .356 in the second half leading a well rounded Detroit team to the AL Championship series. I don’t see the move to third hurting him much. I could see a slight drop in power numbers with all of the weight he has dropped to play third. He is in the middle of his prime, and with the addition of Prince Fielder I see a better pitches coming his way. His contact% has been on 4 year incline. You can count on .300-35.100.

 

 

2. Evan Longoria, TB

Age: 26   2011 Stats: .244-31-99

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+5

5245

B

16.8

.847

 

Longoria is young and his elite potential is still on the rise. I would not be too concerned about injuries. Batting Average took a hit in 2011. I would expect a rebound, and if he can get 550+ AB, expect 35-40 HR Power. Showed great PX and xBA.

 

3. Hanley Ramirez, Mia

Age: 28   2011 Stats: .243-10-45

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+2

3235

B-

.05

.709

 

2011 was a year to forget for Hanley. Injuires and clear lack of motivation made him almost worthless to fantasy owners. I have never bought into the hype surrounding Ramirez. He has had only one great season (2009: .342-24-106, 27 SB). I think he can be a nice player, but when the “experts” call him elite I just laugh. His entitlement toward himself  is enough to scare me away from him. Ramirez is a classic case of High Potential. If he could show his talents you might see a season that look like .350-40-120 with 35+ SB. He reminds me of a former High Potential, unmotivated player I remember from St.Louis named J.D. Drew.

 

4. Adrian Beltre, Tex

Age: 33   2011 Stats: .296-32-105

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

0

4145

C+

14.9

.891

 

Beltre showed us 2010 in Boston was no fluke. He hits in a powerful Texas lineup that gives him plenty of chances to drive runs in. My main concern when I evaluate Beltre is his injury history. He missed August last year with a bum hamstring and had a nice injury history before that with Seattle.

5. Ryan Zimmerman, Was

Age: 27   2011 Stats: .289-12-49

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-2

3225

C+

5.1

.799

I feel Zimmerman is very underrated. He has 35+ HR power, and can hit .300+. At 27 he is entering his prime with a lineup in Washington that is only getting better around him. Injuries have been a hurdle for him lately, but he is healthy heading into 2012 and should continue to put up premium stats.

 

6. David Wright, NYM 

Age: 29   2011 Stats: .254-14-61

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

+1

4125

D+

2.7

.769

Ever since taking a 93 mph fastball to the head in August of 2009, Wright has showed a steady decline. Not the Elite player that many thought he would be, but is still a talented 3rd baseman. 30 HR power, BA in the .280 range, and steals 15 bases is a nice piece to have on your team. 

 

7.  Kevin Youkilis, Bos

Age: 33   2011 Stats: .258-17-80

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

0

4235

F

12.1

.818

 

Being on the wrong side of 30 has not fared well for Youkilis. Since 2009 he has been on a downward trend that took a huge dive last year when injuries came into the picture. He still put up .818 OPS, but with the high risk of injury don’t expect 25+ HR power to come back.

 

8 Pablo Sandoval, SF

Age: 25   2011 Stats: .315-23-70

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-1

4145

B+

18.4

.914

 

Sandoval came back huge in 2011. At 25 years old, you can only hope the sky is the limit for this rising star. The metrics show 30+ HR potential and with a .315 average could bolt him into the elite discussion. Lets see how 2012 turns out before we crown him, but it should be fun to watch him continue to develop. 

9. Alex Rodriguez, NYY

Age: 36   2011 Stats: .276-16-62

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

0

4125

F

8.1

.818

 

 

You can no longer consider A-Rod elite. You can’t count on much with the declining trends, injury history, age, and overall regression. He still has the potential at his age to hit 25-30 HRs and drive in 100, but staying on the field is the issue.

10. Aramis Ramirez, Mil

Age: 34  2011 Stats: .306-26-93

 

Rand Variance Mayberry Health / Age RAR OPS

-1

4235

C+

15.9

.865

 

Even with injuries, Ramirez has been able to slug 25+ HR for the better part of 4 of the past 5 seasons. He hit .306 and hit 96 RBIs on a horrible Cubs team last season. With the Brewers, I could see him picking up some of the slack Prince left behind.   

 

If you would like to explore more in-depth about Advanced Metrics, here are some amazing resources/people that have made a priceless impact on the way I evaluate players and it has shown in the success I have each year. I do not get any kick backs from this list, just like to promote great materials/information when I see it.

 

http://www.baseballhq.com  – Ron Shandler is amazing, buy Baseball Forecaster… it’s my “Fantasy Bible”

 

http://baseballguys.com/ - Ray Flowers gives simple, but great wisdom on the world of Fantasy Sports. Follow him on twitter @Baseballguys

 

http://www.billjamesonline.com/ - Bill James is the Godfather of SABR, If you are new to the game here is where you start to learn advanced metrics

 

 

Questions? Comments? Follow me on Twitter @KStafford32

 

 

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3 responses to “Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings – Third Base

  1. Pingback: Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings – Second Base | Can of Corn Sports

  2. Pingback: Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings – Catchers | Can of Corn Sports

  3. Pingback: Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings – First Basemen | Can of Corn Sports

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